Robert J. Shiller is Sterling Professor of Economics, Department of Economics and Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, and Professor of Finance and Fellow at theInternational Center for Finance, Yale School of Management. He received his B.A. from the University of Michigan in 1967 and his Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1972. He has written on financial markets, financial innovation, behavioral economics, macroeconomics, real estate, statistical methods, and on public attitudes, opinions, and moral judgments regarding markets.
His 1989 book Market Volatility (MIT Press) is a mathematical and behavioral analysis of price fluctuations in speculative markets. His 1993 book Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society’s Largest Economic Risks (Oxford University Press) (available via subscribing libraries on Oxford Online) proposes a variety of new risk-management contracts, such as futures contracts in national incomes or securities based on real estate that would permit the management of risks to standards of living. His book Irrational Exuberance (Princeton 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd edition Princeton 2005) is an analysis and explication of speculative bubbles, with special reference to the stock market and real estate.
His book The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century (Princeton University Press, 2003) is an analysis of an expanding role of finance, insurance, and public finance in our future. His book Subprime Solution: How the Global Financial Crisis Happened and What to Do about It, published in September 2008 by Princeton University Press, offers an analysis of the housing and economic crisis and a plan of action against it. He co-authored, with George A. Akerlof, Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism published in March 2009 by Princeton University Press. His latest book, Finance and the Good Society, was published in April 2012 by Princeton University Press.
His repeat-sales home price indices, developed originally with Karl E. Case, are now published as the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange now maintains futures markets based on the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices.
He has been research associate, National Bureau of Economic Research since 1980, and has been co-organizer of NBER workshops: on behavioral finance with Richard Thaler since 1991, and on macroeconomics and individual decision making (behavioral macroeconomics) with George Akerlof since 1994. He served as Vice President of the American Economic Association, 2005 and President of the Eastern Economic Association, 2006-07. He writes a regular column “Finance in the 21st Century” for Project Syndicate, which publishes around the world, and “Economic View” for The New York Times.
Co Winner of Economic Nobel Prize
Robert J. Shiller with Eugene F. Fama and Lars Peter Hansen have shared the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for their research on how the market prices of assets such as stocks move.
The three laureates, all Americans, “laid the foundation for the current understanding of asset prices,” the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which selects the winner, said today in Stockholm. “It relies in part on fluctuations in risk and risk attitudes, and in part on behavioral biases and market frictions.”
Their work spans almost 50 years of research, beginning with Fama’s finding that it’s difficult to predict price movements in the short run, a conclusion that contributed to the development of stock-index funds. Later work by Shiller and Hansen focused on longer-run price swings and the extent to which they could be explained by such fundamental features as dividend payouts on stocks and the risk appetite of investors.
His Economic Literature
In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society’s obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller’s admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ”ordinary riches,” so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future.
Shiller describes six fundamental ideas for using modern information technology and advanced financial theory to temper basic risks that have been ignored by risk management institutions–risks to the value of our jobs and our homes, to the vitality of our communities, and to the very stability of national economies. Informed by a comprehensive risk information database, this new financial order would include global markets for trading risks and exploiting myriad new financial opportunities, from inequality insurance to intergenerational social security. Just as developments in insuring risks to life, health, and catastrophe have given us a quality of life unimaginable a century ago, so Shiller’s plan for securing crucial assets promises to substantially enrich our condition.
Once again providing an enormous service, Shiller gives us a powerful means to convert our ordinary riches into a level of economic security, equity, and growth never before seen. And once again, what Robert Shiller says should be read and heeded by anyone with a stake in the economy.
“Shiller’s ambition is exhilarating, and gives his work something that most business books lack; a deep sense of how economic ideas might transform people’s everyday lives.”–The New Yorker
“The New Financial Order [is] . . . easily accessible and pleasantly utopian.”–Washington Post
“Certain to be controversial.”–Publishers Weekly
“It is an understatement to say Shiller’s book raises complex political, legal and economic questions. Some will probably never happen. But The New Financial Order is still worth a look. It casts some long-standing social problems in a new light, and it puts some fascinating ideas on the table.”–Andrew Cassel,Philadelphia Inquirer
“While [his] ideas may sound unfamiliar–even radical–Shiller’s reasoned case recalls earlier financial innovations such as stock and futures markets, life and unemployment insurance, and earned income tax credits. The earlier innovations addressed the financial and risk management needs of individuals and societies in the same way Shiller proposes for his concepts.”–Library Journal
“The good news, on Professor Shiller’s analysis, is that it is now possible to conceive and construct trade-able indices that will allow insurers to offer protection against such things as industrial decline and demographically-induced pension shortfalls. If we all knew such insurance was available, we could afford more risks with our choice of career, to the benefit of the economy. Creativity is the lifeblood of capitalist economics. Emotional worries about the risk of unemployment are one of the biggest threats to continued innovation. . . . The data and technology to make a market in such things exists. All that is lacking, Professor Shiller says, is the will to make them a commercial reality.”–Jonathan Davis, The Independent